The Balance of Payments

A country's balance of payment account records all transactions between the residents of that country and the rest of the world, These transactions enter as either debit items or credit items. The debit items include all payments to other countries: these includes the country's purchases of imports, the spending on investment it makes abroad and the interest and the interest and dividends paid to foreigners who have invested in the country.  
The credit items include all receipts from other countries: from the sales of exports, from investment expenditure by foreigners in the country and interest and dividends earned from abroad.

The sale of exports and any other receipts earn foreign currency. The purchase of imports or any other payments abroad use up foreign currency. If we start to send more foreign currency than we earn, one of two things must happen. Both are likely to be a problem

The balance of payments will go into deficit. In other words, these will be a shortfall of foreign currencies.
The government will therefore have to borrow money from abroad, or draw on its foreign currency reserve to make up the shortfall. This is a problem because, if it goes on too long, overseas debts will mount, along with the interest that must be paid; and/or reserves will begin to run low.

The exchange rate will fall. The exchange rate is the rate at which one currency exchange for another. For example, the exchange rate of the pound into the dollar might be 1pound = 1.20 dollar

Inflation

By inflation mean a general rise in prices throughout the economy. Government policy here is to keep inflation both low and stable. One of the most important reasons for this is that it will aid the process of economic decision making. For example, businesses will be able to set prices and wage rates, and make investment decisions with for more confidence.

Unemployment

Governments also aim to ensure that unemployment is as low as possible, not only for the sake of the unemployed themselves, but also because it represents a waste of human resources and because unemployment benefits are a drain on government revenues.

Economic Growth

Governments try to achieve high rates of economic growth over the long term: in other words, growth that is sustained over the years and is not just a temporary phenomenon. To this end, government also try to achieve stable growth, avoiding both recessions and excessive short-term growth that cannot be sustained (governments are nevertheless sometimes happy to give the economy an excessive boost as an election draws near!.)

5 Day Trading Mistakes To Avoid

In the high leverage game of retail forex day trading, there are certain practices that, if used regularly, are likely to lose a trader all he has. There are five common mistakes that day traders often make in an attempt to ramp up returns, but that end up resulting in lower returns. These five potentially devastating mistakes can be avoided with knowledge, discipline and an alternative approach. (For more strategies that you can use, check out Strategies for Part-Time Forex Traders.)

Averaging Down

Traders often stumble across averaging down. It is not something they intended to do when they began trading, but most traders have ended up doing it. There are several problems with averaging down.

The main problem is that a losing position is being held - not only potentially sacrificing money, but also time. This time and money could be placed in something else that is proving itself to be a better position.

Also, for capital that is lost, a larger return is needed on remaining capital to get it back. If a trader loses 50% of her capital, it will take a 100% return to bring her back to the original capital level. Losing large chunks of money on single trades or on single days of trading can cripple capital growth for long periods of time.

While it may work a few times, averaging down will inevitably lead to a large loss or margin call, as a trend can sustain itself longer than a trader can stay liquid - especially if more capital is being added as the position moves further out of the money.

Day traders are especially sensitive to these issues. The short time frame for trades means opportunities must be capitalized on when they occur and bad trades must be exited quickly. (To learn more on averaging down, check out Buying Stocks When The Price Goes Down: Big Mistake?)

Pre-Positioning for News

Traders know the news events that will move the market, yet the direction is not known in advance. A trader may even be fairly confident what a news announcement may be - for instance that the Federal Reserve will or will not raise interest rates - but even so cannot predict how the market will react to this expected news. Often there are additional statements, figures or forward looking indications provided by news announcements that can make movements extremely illogical.

There is also the simple fact that as volatility surges and all sorts of orders hit the market, stops are triggered on both sides of the market. This often results in whip-saw like action before a trend emerges (if one emerges in the near term at all). 

For all these reasons, taking a position before a news announcement can seriously jeopardize a trader's chances of success. There is no easy money here; those who believe there is may face larger than usual losses.

Trading Right after News

A news headline hits the markets and then the market starts to move aggressively. It seems like easy money to hop on board and grab some pips. If this is done in a non-regimented and untested way without a solid trading plan behind it, it can be just as devastating as placing a gamble before the news comes out.

News announcements often cause whipsaw-like action because of a lack of liquidity and hair-pin turns in the market assessment of the report. Even a trade that is in the money can turn quickly, bringing large losses as large swings occur back and forth. Stops during these times are dependent on liquidity that may not be there, which means losses could potentially be much more than calculated.

Day traders should wait for volatility to subside and for a definitive trend to develop after news announcements. By doing so there is likely to be fewer liquidity concerns, risk can be managed more effectively and a more stable price direction is likely. (For more on trading with news releases, read How To Trade Forex On News Releases.)

Risking More Than 1% of Capital

Excessive risk does not equal excessive returns. Almost all traders who risk large amounts of capital on single trades will eventually lose in the long run. A common rule is that a trader should risk (in terms of the difference between entry and stop price) no more than 1% of capital on any single trade. Professional traders will often risk far less than 1% of capital. 

Day trading also deserves some extra attention in this area. A daily risk maximum should also be implemented. This daily risk maximum can be 1% (or less) of capital, or equivalent to the average daily profit over a 30 day period. For example, a trader with a $50,000 account (leverage not included) could lose a maximum of $500 per day. Alternatively, this number could be altered so it is more in line with the average daily gain - if a trader makes $100 on positive days, she keeps losing days close to $100 or less.

The purpose of this method is to make sure no single trade or single day of trading hurts the traders account significantly. By adopting a risk maximum that is equivalent to the average daily gain over a 30 day period, the trader knows that he will not lose more in a single trade/day than he can make back on another. (To understand the risks involved in the forex market, see Forex Leverage: A Double-Edged Sword.)

Unrealistic Expectations

Unrealistic expectations come from many sources, but often result in all of the above problems. Our own trading expectations are often imposed on the market, leaving us expecting it to act according our desires and trade direction. The market doesn't care what you want. Traders must accept that the market can be illogical. It can be choppy, volatile and trending all in short, medium and long-term cycles. Isolating each move and profiting from it is not possible, and believing so will result in frustration and errors in judgment.

The best way to avoid unrealistic expectations is formulate a trading plan and then trade it. If it yields steady results, then don't change it - with forex leverage, even a small gain can become large. Accept this as what the market gives you. As capital grows over time, the position size can be increased to bring in higher dollar returns. Also, new strategies can be implemented and tested with minimal capital at first. Then, if positive results are seen, more capital can be put into the strategy.

Intra-day, a trader must also accept what the market provides at different parts of the day. Near the open, the markets are more volatile. Specific strategies can be used during the market open that may not work later in the day. As the day progresses, it may become quieter and a different strategy can be used. Towards the close, there may be a pickup in action and yet another strategy can be used. Accept what is given at each point in the day and don't expect more from a system than what it is providing.

Bottom Line

Traders get trapped in five common forex day trading mistakes. These must be avoided at all costs by developing an alternative approach. For averaging down, traders must not add to positions but rather exit losers quickly with a pre-planned exit strategy. Traders should sit back and watch news announcements until the volatility has subsided. Risk must be kept in check, with no single trade or day losing more than what can be easily made back on another. Expectations must be managed, and what the market gives must be accepted. By understanding the pitfalls and how to avoid to them, traders are more likely to find success in trading. (To help you become successful in the forex market, check out 10 Ways to Avoid Losing Money In Forex.)