Stronger Dollar, Good or Bad for US

Dollar Good or Bad For the US

Is a strong US dollar good or bad for the US economy? Typically the word strong is perceived as a positive reference but when it comes to a country's economy, a strong currency may not be in their best interest. In fact, many countries like China and Japan take an active effort to weaken their currency because their countries are export dependent. Being the most actively traded currency in the world, it is very important to understand whether a strong dollar actually helps or hurts the US economy, especially given the currency's recent movements. Over the past 2 months, the dollar has advanced almost 4 percent or 500 points against the Euro. Against the Japanese yen, the greenback has mounted an advance of 750 points or 7 percent in two months. Is this appreciation good for America? Some people claim that it helps to accelerate the pace of growth while others hail the drawbacks of a stronger dollar, saying that it will have detrimental effects over the longer term. With arguments on both sides, it is important to examine the specific pros and cons of a stronger dollar.

Benefits of a Stronger Dollar

When growth is strong, we typically see an increase in the value of the US dollar because at that time, the stock market is most likely performing well and attracting foreign investment. As the stock market rallies and the economy continues to boom, the Federal Reserve becomes worried that this euphoria may get out of hand by boosting inflationary pressures and creating a speculative bubble. Therefore towards the middle boom, they begin to consider raising interest rates to tame growth and to prevent a damaging crash that may occur later on.

Reflective of US Economic Growth

A stronger dollar is good for the US because it tends to reflect accelerating growth in the economy. When investors and speculators buy or sell a specific currency, they do so because they expect the value of the currency to go higher relative to another currency. Since the US dollar is the most actively traded currency in the world, its valuation tends to be reflective of the direct outlook for the US economy and its monetary policy. Higher amounts of exports, increased production and advancements in goods manufacturing all contribute to a growing economy and increase the demand for the US dollar. Consumer spending also helps. With higher employment, consumers will not only become more optimistic, but they will tend to spend more as well. This increase contributes a good portion to the economic expansion as consumer spending equates to almost 60 percent of overall growth. Ultimately, all factors considered, the positive sentiment supports a stronger currency as foreign investors seek stable assets.

US Purchasing Power Increases Abroad

The benefit of a stronger dollar is that it also increases the purchasing power of US consumers abroad. A luxury handbag or a car that once was too expensive to own, may be purchased for a cheaper price thanks to a higher exchange rate. Vacations and trips to foreign countries also become bargains as travelers are able to see the world at adjusted package prices. Here, not only has the cost of travel (buying a ticket, booking a hotel room) become cheaper, voyagers can also stretch their budgets to include more activities that would have otherwise been foregone. This tends to boost consumer confidence as the shift in exchange rates make US citizens feel wealthier.

Cross Border Transactions Accelerate

Consumers are not the only ones to benefit from a stronger dollar; companies on an acquisition binge do so as well. Much in the same light as a consumer, a company's purchasing power also increases when converting dollars into euros, pounds or yen. With a stronger dollar, foreign companies become cheaper in valuation compared to US based or domestic companies. The bargain notion could spark a wave of cross border transactions as American companies look to either add to their own overall business or eliminate a competitor by acquiring them.

Risks Brought on By a Stronger Dollar

Yet there are as many negative ramifications of a stronger dollar as there are positive ones.

Widens the Trade Deficit

Although the appreciation in the dollar does give consumers more purchasing power, odds are that most of the increased spending will take place outside of the US. The demand by Americans who known for their penchant for foreign luxury goods, will increase the import balance and the US trade deficit. This increase has its detriments as it erodes overall growth, hurts GDP and weakens the economic expansion. There is essentially a self-correcting mechanism in the foreign exchange market. A stronger dollar basically leads to a weaker dollar while a weaker dollar eventually leads to a stronger one through the implications of growth.

Cuts Into Corporate Profitability

Along the same lines, a stronger dollar reduces the competitiveness of US goods that are sold outside of the US. When the US dollar strengthens, foreign trade partners will have to pay more euros and pounds in order to make up for the appreciated dollar when they import from the US. Subsequently, the increase will lead to a decline in demand as American made goods become less attractive to buy at the consumer level. This slump in demand will ultimately translate into thinner profit margins of manufacturers and producers in the US, depleting expansion potential in the country. The result in the longer term will be slower growth even as US consumers up their near term standard of living.

Could Force the Fed to Raise Rates to Tame Growth

A stronger economy could force Federal Reserve policy makers to consider raising benchmark interest rates. Initially this will help to fuel even further gains in the US dollar as foreigners send money into the US to capitalize on the higher yield. However the rate hikes essentially raise the cost of money, making it costlier for consumers to spend. Ultimately, the decisions would hinder growth as they promote consumer hesitance rather than spending.

What's Going On Now?

A more macro look at the performance of the US dollar over the past 12 months reveals that it has fallen 10% against the Euro, 12% against the British pound and has risen 2.5% against the Japanese Yen. The fact that dollar strength is not unanimous indicates that the currency's value is not a major concern for economy watchers at the moment. Instead, the dollar's strength against the Asian currencies such as the Chinese Yuan and Japanese Yen are a mere annoyance, albeit a big one. The depreciated yen and low value of the Yuan are making Asian goods cheaper than American goods both domestically and internationally. This has fueled a record trade deficit with China and spurred protectionist sentiment. Manufacturers have been screaming since the strong dollar, and weak Asian currencies are cutting into corporate profitability.

Conclusion

A stronger currency has its backers and opponents like anything else in the market. A stronger dollar is good in the sense that it helps consumer spending and reduces inflation. It effectively allows the American consumer and corporation to stretch their dollar further, either abroad or on imported goods. But, an appreciated greenback conversely increases the trade deficit while weakening the export sector, removing the competitiveness of American made goods. Ultimately currency valuations are cyclical. A stronger dollar tends to lead to a weaker one which eventually helps to encourage economic growth and provide the backdrop for a stronger currency. Either way, currency fluctuations are becoming an increasingly larger consideration expanding from the small town shopper to the manufacturing giant and onto even bigger US policy makers. As the dollar continues to strengthen, or weaken, everyone in some part will need to take a side.

The Relationship Between the Stock Market and Forex Markets

The equity market can impact the currency market in many different ways. For example, if a strong stock market rally happens in the U.S., with the Dow and the Nasdaq registering impressive gains, we are likely to see a large influx of foreign money into the U.S., as international investors rush in to join the party. This influx of money would be very positive for the U.S. dollar, because in order to participate in the equity market rally, foreign investors would have to sell their own domestic currency and purchase U.S. dollars. The opposite also holds true: if the stock market in the U.S. is doing poorly, foreign investors will most likely rush to sell their U.S. equity holdings and then reconvert the U.S. dollars into their domestic currency - which would have a substantially negative impact on the greenback. This logic can be applied to all the other currencies and equity markets around the world. It is also the most basic usage of equity market flows to trade FX

The relationship between money supply and the rate of interest

Simple monetary theory often assumes that the supply of money is totally independent of interest rates. The money supply is 'exogenous'. The supply of money is assumed to be determined by government: what the government chooses it to be, or what it allows it to be by its choices of the level and method of financing the PSNCR.

Some economists, however, argue that money supply is 'endogenous', with higher interest rates leading to increase in the supply of money. The argument is that the supply of money is responding to the demand for money. If people start borrowing more money, the resulting shortage of money in bank will drive interest rates. But if banks have surplus liquidity or are prepared to operate with a lower liquidity ratio, they will create extra credit in response to the increased demand and higher interest rates: money supply has expanded.

The Balance of Payments

A country's balance of payment account records all transactions between the residents of that country and the rest of the world, These transactions enter as either debit items or credit items. The debit items include all payments to other countries: these includes the country's purchases of imports, the spending on investment it makes abroad and the interest and the interest and dividends paid to foreigners who have invested in the country.  
The credit items include all receipts from other countries: from the sales of exports, from investment expenditure by foreigners in the country and interest and dividends earned from abroad.

The sale of exports and any other receipts earn foreign currency. The purchase of imports or any other payments abroad use up foreign currency. If we start to send more foreign currency than we earn, one of two things must happen. Both are likely to be a problem

The balance of payments will go into deficit. In other words, these will be a shortfall of foreign currencies.
The government will therefore have to borrow money from abroad, or draw on its foreign currency reserve to make up the shortfall. This is a problem because, if it goes on too long, overseas debts will mount, along with the interest that must be paid; and/or reserves will begin to run low.

The exchange rate will fall. The exchange rate is the rate at which one currency exchange for another. For example, the exchange rate of the pound into the dollar might be 1pound = 1.20 dollar

Inflation

By inflation mean a general rise in prices throughout the economy. Government policy here is to keep inflation both low and stable. One of the most important reasons for this is that it will aid the process of economic decision making. For example, businesses will be able to set prices and wage rates, and make investment decisions with for more confidence.

Unemployment

Governments also aim to ensure that unemployment is as low as possible, not only for the sake of the unemployed themselves, but also because it represents a waste of human resources and because unemployment benefits are a drain on government revenues.

Economic Growth

Governments try to achieve high rates of economic growth over the long term: in other words, growth that is sustained over the years and is not just a temporary phenomenon. To this end, government also try to achieve stable growth, avoiding both recessions and excessive short-term growth that cannot be sustained (governments are nevertheless sometimes happy to give the economy an excessive boost as an election draws near!.)

5 Day Trading Mistakes To Avoid

In the high leverage game of retail forex day trading, there are certain practices that, if used regularly, are likely to lose a trader all he has. There are five common mistakes that day traders often make in an attempt to ramp up returns, but that end up resulting in lower returns. These five potentially devastating mistakes can be avoided with knowledge, discipline and an alternative approach. (For more strategies that you can use, check out Strategies for Part-Time Forex Traders.)

Averaging Down

Traders often stumble across averaging down. It is not something they intended to do when they began trading, but most traders have ended up doing it. There are several problems with averaging down.

The main problem is that a losing position is being held - not only potentially sacrificing money, but also time. This time and money could be placed in something else that is proving itself to be a better position.

Also, for capital that is lost, a larger return is needed on remaining capital to get it back. If a trader loses 50% of her capital, it will take a 100% return to bring her back to the original capital level. Losing large chunks of money on single trades or on single days of trading can cripple capital growth for long periods of time.

While it may work a few times, averaging down will inevitably lead to a large loss or margin call, as a trend can sustain itself longer than a trader can stay liquid - especially if more capital is being added as the position moves further out of the money.

Day traders are especially sensitive to these issues. The short time frame for trades means opportunities must be capitalized on when they occur and bad trades must be exited quickly. (To learn more on averaging down, check out Buying Stocks When The Price Goes Down: Big Mistake?)

Pre-Positioning for News

Traders know the news events that will move the market, yet the direction is not known in advance. A trader may even be fairly confident what a news announcement may be - for instance that the Federal Reserve will or will not raise interest rates - but even so cannot predict how the market will react to this expected news. Often there are additional statements, figures or forward looking indications provided by news announcements that can make movements extremely illogical.

There is also the simple fact that as volatility surges and all sorts of orders hit the market, stops are triggered on both sides of the market. This often results in whip-saw like action before a trend emerges (if one emerges in the near term at all). 

For all these reasons, taking a position before a news announcement can seriously jeopardize a trader's chances of success. There is no easy money here; those who believe there is may face larger than usual losses.

Trading Right after News

A news headline hits the markets and then the market starts to move aggressively. It seems like easy money to hop on board and grab some pips. If this is done in a non-regimented and untested way without a solid trading plan behind it, it can be just as devastating as placing a gamble before the news comes out.

News announcements often cause whipsaw-like action because of a lack of liquidity and hair-pin turns in the market assessment of the report. Even a trade that is in the money can turn quickly, bringing large losses as large swings occur back and forth. Stops during these times are dependent on liquidity that may not be there, which means losses could potentially be much more than calculated.

Day traders should wait for volatility to subside and for a definitive trend to develop after news announcements. By doing so there is likely to be fewer liquidity concerns, risk can be managed more effectively and a more stable price direction is likely. (For more on trading with news releases, read How To Trade Forex On News Releases.)

Risking More Than 1% of Capital

Excessive risk does not equal excessive returns. Almost all traders who risk large amounts of capital on single trades will eventually lose in the long run. A common rule is that a trader should risk (in terms of the difference between entry and stop price) no more than 1% of capital on any single trade. Professional traders will often risk far less than 1% of capital. 

Day trading also deserves some extra attention in this area. A daily risk maximum should also be implemented. This daily risk maximum can be 1% (or less) of capital, or equivalent to the average daily profit over a 30 day period. For example, a trader with a $50,000 account (leverage not included) could lose a maximum of $500 per day. Alternatively, this number could be altered so it is more in line with the average daily gain - if a trader makes $100 on positive days, she keeps losing days close to $100 or less.

The purpose of this method is to make sure no single trade or single day of trading hurts the traders account significantly. By adopting a risk maximum that is equivalent to the average daily gain over a 30 day period, the trader knows that he will not lose more in a single trade/day than he can make back on another. (To understand the risks involved in the forex market, see Forex Leverage: A Double-Edged Sword.)

Unrealistic Expectations

Unrealistic expectations come from many sources, but often result in all of the above problems. Our own trading expectations are often imposed on the market, leaving us expecting it to act according our desires and trade direction. The market doesn't care what you want. Traders must accept that the market can be illogical. It can be choppy, volatile and trending all in short, medium and long-term cycles. Isolating each move and profiting from it is not possible, and believing so will result in frustration and errors in judgment.

The best way to avoid unrealistic expectations is formulate a trading plan and then trade it. If it yields steady results, then don't change it - with forex leverage, even a small gain can become large. Accept this as what the market gives you. As capital grows over time, the position size can be increased to bring in higher dollar returns. Also, new strategies can be implemented and tested with minimal capital at first. Then, if positive results are seen, more capital can be put into the strategy.

Intra-day, a trader must also accept what the market provides at different parts of the day. Near the open, the markets are more volatile. Specific strategies can be used during the market open that may not work later in the day. As the day progresses, it may become quieter and a different strategy can be used. Towards the close, there may be a pickup in action and yet another strategy can be used. Accept what is given at each point in the day and don't expect more from a system than what it is providing.

Bottom Line

Traders get trapped in five common forex day trading mistakes. These must be avoided at all costs by developing an alternative approach. For averaging down, traders must not add to positions but rather exit losers quickly with a pre-planned exit strategy. Traders should sit back and watch news announcements until the volatility has subsided. Risk must be kept in check, with no single trade or day losing more than what can be easily made back on another. Expectations must be managed, and what the market gives must be accepted. By understanding the pitfalls and how to avoid to them, traders are more likely to find success in trading. (To help you become successful in the forex market, check out 10 Ways to Avoid Losing Money In Forex.)